Prop bet #1: Washington finds success in short roll
Game 3 is all about how the Minnesota Timberwolves will adjust to try and slow down the Dallas Mavericks, and more specifically Luka Doncic.
The Wolves like to play a drop scheme to avoid getting screened and match up one-on-one. But Luka has been torching them in that alignment. They did remarkably little blitzing of Doncic in the pick and roll in Games 1 and 2.
Seeing as how they’ve had so little success slowing Luka down, I’m expecting that they’ll change things up for stretches of Game 3, including throwing hard hedges and outright traps Luka’s way.
That puts a premium on short roll playmaking, as whoever Luka finds passing out of the trap will be in an advantage situation playing five-on-four. Derrick Lively is already a good passer as a rookie, so in the minutes they share the court that responsibility will fall to him. But the Wolves also know this, so they’ll probably save their attempts to trap until the minutes that Daniel Gafford is in the game, who is more limited as a playmaker.
To counter that I expect the Mavs to make use of P.J. Washington as a screen and roll man more, entrusting him to make the play five-on-four. This has the added benefit of dragging Karl-Anthony Towns into the pick and roll defense, which is in area he has struggled not just in this series but much of his career.
P.J. is going to play around 40 minutes as he has proven an indispensable part of the Mavericks rotation, with that amount of opportunity I love the value of these P.J. Washington odds.
P.J. Washington prop: Over 1.5 assists (+160 at bet365)
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Prop bet #2: NAW-ing at you
Anthony Edwards is gassed, and it’s a big problem for Minnesota.
He looks like burning the candle at both ends against the Denver Nuggets has caught up to him, and he simply has not had the level of juice in this series that he needs if the Wolves are going to win.
Despite loudly proclaiming for all to hear that he was going to lock up Kyrie Irving the way he clamped Jamal Murray, it hasn’t gone that way. Irving has scored well, and run Edwards ragged in the meantime.
Ant is too important to the Timberwolves offense to have him exhaust himself guarding Kyrie for 40+ minutes, but they also obviously don’t want him guarding Luka. They need to relieve Ant’s workload, which could mean Minnesota gets creative with their rotations.
I think there’s a good chance that Nickeil Alexander-Walker sees his minutes bump in Game 3, so that he can ease the defensive burden that Ant has been saddled with against Irving.
Alexander-Walker was playing a ton in the Denver series, but some erratic outside shooting has seen his minutes dip against the Mavs. But he should earn more minutes on the strength of his defense. He’s switchable and long, with great anticipation.
Through 13 playoff games Nickeil has only failed to score at least five points three times, and he’s only had one game where he’s taken fewer than five shots. Even as his role and minutes fluctuate, he’s seizing the opportunities that are made available to him.
This scoring prop is so low he can get there just on tip ins and garbage man basketball, which is why these Nickeil Alexander-Walker odds are some of my favorite on the board on Sunday.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker prop: Over 4.5 points (-115 at bet365)
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Prop bet #3: Go Hardy
Jaden Hardy is another role player I expect to make an impact on Sunday. Hardy has been getting at least 10 minutes per game consistently since the last two games of the series against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the expense of Tim Hardaway Jr, who has struggled mightily.
While THJ is a pure shooter, Hardy adds a pick and roll playmaking element that nobody else on the Dallas bench provides. Hardy isn’t going to play big minutes, but when he’s on the court his purpose is to run pick and roll with Lively and Gafford, just to steal some minutes where Luka and Kyrie don’t have to do literally everything on offense.
He’s proven reliable in that role, as he has chemistry with both Lively and Gafford, who make his job easier because they each have an enormous catch radius on lobs.
Hardy has averaged 2.5 assists since re-entering the rotation in Game 6 against the Thunder, and has had at least two assists in three of those four games. At +145, I think there’s strong value in these Game 3 Jaden Hardy odds.
Jaden Hardy prop: Over 1.5 assists (+145 at bet365)
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