Three storylines to watch as college football's transfer portal opens (2024)

On the eve of Portal Day, an SEC staffer was asked whether he had any predictions for what will go down on Monday. He sent a one-word reply.

“Chaos.”

Ten minutes later, . The former five-star was rated by some as the nation’s No. 1 overall recruit two years ago. The staffer, already nervous that he might not get much sleep, didn’t need to hear that news.

His response: “MAKE IT STOP.”

More than a few fan bases will be saying the same thing on Monday when the portal officially opens for business for underclassman transfers and the mass exodus begins.

There are already nearly 400 FBS scholarship players active in the NCAA transfer portal and more than a hundred who’ve announced in the past week they plan to transfer. But we know this much after last year: Monday is sure to be a mess. A year ago, 456 scholarship players appeared in the portal on Day 1, and a record-shattering 780 total players from FBS, FCS and Division II went in.

That was the first year of the NCAA’s transfer window system. The windows are shorter this time around, reduced from 60 days out of the year down to 45. But there’s no reason to believe that will result in fewer players transferring. The 30-day winter transfer period runs from Monday through Jan. 2. But the recruiting dead period starting on Dec. 18 makes this more like a two-week race to get transfers on campus and committed as fast as possible.

The decisions made by players and coaches this week will end up having significant consequences for college football’s 2024 season. Who can land the right transfers to turn their teams into contenders? And who gets wrecked by more attrition than they ever anticipated? We’re about to find out. Here’s what you need to know and what we’ll be watching as this wild week kicks off.

How does the transfer portal work?

The portal launched in the fall of 2018 as a communication tool to help give athletes more say in the process of switching schools. To enter the transfer portal, athletes notify the school of their intent to transfer. From there, the school’s compliance department has 48 hours to put an athlete’s name into the portal.

Athletes must enter the portal within one of the windows (for football, either a 30-day period beginning Monday or a 15-day period in the spring) in order to be immediately eligible to play at their new school through the NCAA’s one-time free transfer rule. Graduate transfers can enter the portal at any time.

Once in the portal, a player can select a destination – or decide to stay at their current school – at any time as long as they meet enrollment criteria. This means that even though players must enter their name in the portal within the window, they do not have to make a decision on their new destination by the time the window closes.

Can new head coaches lock the door?

, but his recent stint on the Aggies’ staff and familiarity with their roster was viewed as a real plus. He needed to come in and hold this talented team together.

Sunday’s news of defensive line coach Elijah Robinson leaving for the Syracuse defensive coordinator job was tough timing. Several players advocated for the beloved assistant to become their next head coach. Elko did all he could to keep Robinson and reportedly has a replacement lined up, but Nolen’s decision to hit the portal could be the first of many among the Aggies’ star-studded unit of defensive linemen. A coaching change already means it’s open season on raiding your roster. Robinson’s exit could make matters worse.

Nolen was the highest-rated member of Texas A&M’s top-ranked signing class in 2022. There’s been plenty of speculation in the past few weeks that top receiver Evan Stewart plans to put his name in the portal as well. Can Elko get the rest of the studs from that epic recruiting haul to stick together?

For newly hired head coaches, the 2024 roster is currently an extremely fluid situation. At Texas A&M, the urgent mission is to retain and rebuild trust. At a place like Michigan State, you could look at it a different way.

The Spartans have already had 20 players either enter the portal or publicly indicate they will. Let’s hope they all know what they’re doing. New coach Jonathan Smith and his staff need not hold scholarships and spots for them. These new staffs are looking for a little loyalty as they get to work and clearly aren’t afraid of pursuing extensive roster flips in Year 1 if necessary. Still, there are always some players you cannot afford to lose.

New Indiana coach Curt Cignetti just took the job and now must figure out what to do about the 20 scholarship players who’ve already hit the portal. UTEP has lost 18 scholarship players since firing Dana Dimel, including its two leading rushers (Deion Hankins and Torrance Burgess Jr.) and top three receivers (Kelly Akharaiyi, Jeremiah Ballard, Tyrin Smith), and has yet to make a hire. Middle Tennessee moving on from Rick Stockstill has led to 16 scholarship players departing, with several garnering Power 5 offers.

One stat to keep in mind from last year’s portal cycle: Less than 4 percent of FBS scholarship players who entered the portal ended up withdrawing and staying put. Persuading them to change their mind is not impossible, but it is rare.

How these staffs respond to the challenge, by either winning their new players over or losing them for good, will be curious to track. So far, none of these new hires have vowed they’re bringing their Louis luggage with them, but it’s still early.

How many quarterbacks make surprise portal moves?

Now that we’re a few years into the portal experience, the transfer quarterback market is seemingly becoming more and more predictable.

The veterans QBs who have an extra year and probably aren’t early-round NFL Draft picks are going to put their names in. A few good ones whose coach or coordinator left might go, too. And the backups who aren’t starting anytime soon inevitably move on.

When it comes to the bigger names, like Sam Hartman last year, there are typically weeks of rumors and speculation leading up to that name finally appearing in the portal. Collectives know who they want to go get long before the season is over. You can usually see it coming.

We broke down the transfer quarterback market on Friday and will continue to update that tracker throughout December as more passers pop up in the portal. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord added his name to that pool within hours of the portal opening after starting every game for the Buckeyes this season. Here’s the question going into Monday: Are we about to see a rising star hit the market?

In some ways, it’s a matter of supply and demand, as always. There are too many top-25 programs searching for a new QB1 for 2024. They’re creating a ton of demand for guys like Kansas State quarterback Will Howard, with USC’s Lincoln Riley reportedly flying a jet to Manhattan, Kan., to meet with him on Saturday.

If you’re Riley and you’re trying to turn things around from 7-5 and win big next year, is Howard the guy? Or do you bide your time and hope a true all-conference-caliber arm transfers soon? Again, these can be season-defining decisions. Among a few of these coaching staffs actively seeking top transfer QBs, there’s a lot of curiosity about who Riley and USC will end up adding. He’s done a one-year rental before with Jalen Hurts while at Oklahoma, but every other transfer he’s succeeded with had multiple years of eligibility. In this year’s final College Football rankings, six of the top 12 teams are led by transfer QBs who are multi-year starters for their new school.

For all we know, the next Michael Penix Jr. is about to become available.

Who’s the next big Group of 5 import?

If you watched the ACC championship game on Saturday night, you noticed No. 55. There was no way you missed him.

Louisville didn’t know how to stop Florida State defensive tackle Braden Fiske. The 6-foot-5, 297-pound senior racked up nine tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in a 16-6 victory as part of a dominant night for the Seminoles’ defense. The best player on the field was a transfer from Western Michigan.

Florida State IDL Braden Fiske finished with 4.5 TFLs and 3.0 sacks against Louisville.

Just watch his effort. pic.twitter.com/dmMOT3g3So

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) December 3, 2023

At this time last year, Fiske was looking for a new school after developing into a three-year starter and All-MAC performer at Western Michigan. The schools found him fast based on his game tape and made him one of the more coveted D-linemen in the entire cycle. Back in high school, Western Michigan was his only offer. Suddenly, everybody wanted him. It’s always exciting to watch that phenomenon play out for lesser-known Group of 5 players as the portal process heats up.

It’s going to happen all over again this week. We’ve already seen a bunch of all-conference type players from the AAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA announce they’re going to transfer, each one of them hoping to be the next guy who convincingly proves he belonged in Power 5 ball all along. Many will be right about that.

Let’s not forget how brutal it was for recruits in the Class of 2021. The combination of the pandemic dead period, no camps and the rise of the portal made it tough for those high school seniors to earn scholarships. There are really good players all over the country who took the best or only offer they could get but have been determined to put in the work it takes to move up from Day 1.

Keep that in mind as you watch G5 players you’ve probably never heard of turn into portal sensations who pick up 20 offers in a day. There are some real difference-makers out there who have what it takes to succeed at a Power 5 school. Great coaching staffs know how to identify them quickly, and the fight to find the next one will be fun to follow.

(Photo: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)

Max Olson covers national college football for The Athletic. He previously covered the Big 12 and recruiting for ESPN.com. Follow Max on Twitter @max_olson