Matt Zumbrunn
EF2
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- Saturday at 10:12 AM
- #51
Brian McKibben said:
With this said... are dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s really that bad for southern Kansas?
Yes... some 70s would be nice, but you can get some really nice storms with anything above 65.
Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.
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Matthew Crowther
EF3
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- Aug 19, 2005
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- Saturday at 10:13 AM
- #52
OKC's dew point jumped up 4F in one hour. The juice is coming north.
Mike Smith
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- Saturday at 10:13 AM
- #53
Look at a 10a surface chart and you'll see winds have really picked up from the SE over southern KS and NW OK.
I live in far NE ICT (1 mi WNW of KAAO) and in the last 15-20 minutes the winds have gone from light to at least gusts to 20 kt from the SE.
We have a railcam in downtown Wichita.
You can see the trees swaying and the mic, which has a wind screen, is reflecting the stronger winds.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
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- Saturday at 10:14 AM
- #54
Matt Zumbrunn said:
Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.
Yes, but remember the real action is close to 00Z, as the temp cools the spread will go down.
Brian McKibben
EF3
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- Saturday at 10:33 AM
- #55
Matt Zumbrunn said:
Any concern with the temperature and dewpoint spread being so large? Looking at Wichita (high 87) if the mid 60s dewpoints can make it there we are still looking at a ~22 spread.
Definitely will take a bit of time for the bases to lower with a dewpoint depression that large. But still doable.
Sean Ramsey
EF4
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- Yukon, OK
- Saturday at 10:38 AM
- #56
Probably a losing bet today given the latest HRRR runs, but I may head west on I-40 to the Geary area just in case storms fire up and head toward the metro. Always like keeping an eye on stuff since I have family across the area. 700mb temps are pretty warm according to RAP so I figure there will be a storm or two all by themselves and after bagging the Eldorado tor I'm ok with not going down that way (especially north Texas) again for a bit.
Dan Robinson
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- Saturday at 10:44 AM
- #57
I want to give Kansas a chance to trend in the right direction due to "wish bias" for the storm there to be viable. But the Red River target is so far away that one will need to commit to one or the other pretty early. I am begrudgingly on my way south on a course for Vernon Texas. I know there will be a great storm there, but I'm just hoping I can stay with it given roads and weekend traffic. I will reconsider if Kansas looks like it is coming together - I don't expect that right now.
Ben Holcomb
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- Saturday at 10:53 AM
- #58
The RAP is really painting a SW OK picture between 00 and 03Z. Everything rapidly increases after 00Z with the low level jet and moisture going up.
As for the dewpoints, it seems we're in rapid moistening. +12 here in Norman from 3 hours ago.
Mike Smith
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- Saturday at 11:04 AM
- #59
Here's some objective guidance with NADOCAST from 14Z is second from right.
I'm surprised by NADOCAST today. I have a great deal of respect for that product. It has consistently favored KS over OK but with less intensity (not hatching) than others.
The paintballs have consistently shown "corridors" in KS. The southern KS paintball corridor goes all the way into the Ozarks during the night. Last night's CSU guidance showed the max over southern OK -- which has pretty much disappeared in this morning's.
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Brian McKibben
EF3
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- Saturday at 11:04 AM
- #60
Sean Ramsey said:
Probably a losing bet today given the latest HRRR runs, but I may head west on I-40 to the Geary area just in case storms fire up and head toward the metro. Always like keeping an eye on stuff since I have family across the area. 700mb temps are pretty warm according to RAP so I figure there will be a storm or two all by themselves and after bagging the Eldorado tor I'm ok with not going down that way (especially north Texas) again for a bit.
might not be a bad place to start. Track that jet streak over NM that is heading for the OK/TX border around I-40.
A few cams are hinting at initiation as this hits the DL. And from experience it seems plausible.
Dan Robinson
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- Saturday at 12:19 PM
- #61
Based on the mesoanalysis and surface ob trends, I can't see how the good moisture doesn't make it to I-40 if not farther. I don't know why the CAMs have been so finicky about developing storms north of the Red River. Is there any real-world thing to support this that I'm missing? Some special soundings to sample the moisture depth upstream would be nice soon.
Mikayla Norris
EF2
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- Saturday at 12:38 PM
- #62
All morning I have been debating on whether or not to commit south of the Red River, or north of it. With the very meh road network either side of the state line, and being limited by river crossings, I figure whichever side I end up on will likely be the side I stay on. I agree with Dan about moisture making it to I-40, and for what its worth the 16z HRRR is starting to indicate storms firing farther north into west OK as well, though there has been next to no run-to-run consistency on that. Having said all of that, my current thoughts are to target somewhere north of the Red River along a N-S running highway. I want to be able to adjust if necessary. I'm thinking maybe US-183 near Snyder, but even as I type this I'm second guessing. Luckily being so close to the target area, I have a little bit more time before I have to commit one way or the other.
Sean Ramsey
EF4
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- Saturday at 12:38 PM
- #63
Nine CAM's offering nine different solutions with each run. Moisture return looks to make it to the Kansas border with 66-67 dews in Enid now, although as Dan mentioned the quality of depth is questionable. Still enough juice for anything to happen depending on when and where the cap decides to break.
Still looking at making a center field type play just west of OKC and I can go north or south from there. Will be watching visible satellite closely today for developing CU fields. My gut tells me storms will try to fire around 4pm even though CAM's are holding off until 6pm or later. I've seen numerous times this season where storms popped well ahead of model expectations and can easily see that happening today as well.
Haven't left the house yet and will probably hold off for another hour or so to let things develop a bit.
Edit: Normally I'd start today somewhere around Wichita Falls/Lawton area but it's a Moderate Risk on a Saturday in May in Oklahoma and I'm assuming the hordes will be out in force, so I'm very open to alternative targets today.
Dan Robinson
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- #64
Per the cirrus streaming across the Texas panhandle, it looks like the jet max may already be overspreading the dryline. Models don't have that completely departing by 00z, but I wonder if CAMs think there will be subsidence issues by then.
Brian McKibben
EF3
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- Saturday at 1:05 PM
- #65
Had a recent attempt at CI near Lubbock within last 20 min
Mike Smith
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- Saturday at 1:28 PM
- #66
Well, sports fans, the 12Z HRRR forecast a surface dew point of 49°F at Wichita at 1pm. Actual Td at KICT? 60°F!
Ten minutes ago, there were no cumulus in the sky. Now, we have three very small Cu to our southwest (I live in far NE ICT).
Ben Holcomb
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- Saturday at 1:40 PM
- #67
I'm interested in that little boundary that seems to be running across DFW metro in a southeast-northwest orientation and seems to pull back into the dryline at the tip of the best Theta-E. Sure looks like we'll be in Southwest OK This afternoon.
twarner
EF0
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- Jul 9, 2004
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- Wichita, Kansas
- Saturday at 1:41 PM
- #68
Mike Smith said:
Well, sports fans, the 12Z HRRR forecast a surface dew point of 49°F at Wichita at 1pm. Actual Td at KICT? 60°F!
Ten minutes ago, there were no cumulus in the sky. Now, we have three very small Cu to our southwest (I live in far NE ICT).
NW Wichita dewpoint has went from 52 at 7am to 65 at 135pm. In the last hour has went from 58 to 65.
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Matt Zumbrunn
EF2
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- Saturday at 2:38 PM
- #69
Dew point went from 56 to 64 here in fairly short order once the wind went from ESE to SSE. Still unsure on quality, but we have more time to keep pumping it north before initiation.
Jason N
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- Saturday at 2:41 PM
- #70
Totally agree with Mike Smith and couple other moisture posts, you don't need 70s dp to get great storms..they help with lower LCLs but there plenty of dynamics that make up for it ..making my way out towards medicine lodge, greensburg and let whatever happen happen!
Dan Robinson
EF5
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- Saturday at 2:42 PM
- #71
The early wave has already fired storms well south of the Red River. These appear to be in line to cut off downstream inflow. Also, the cirrus deck to the north is very thick and is stunting further destabilization.
JamesCaruso
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- Saturday at 2:52 PM
- #72
Dan Robinson said:
The early wave has already fired storms well south of the Red River. These appear to be in line to cut off downstream inflow. Also, the cirrus deck to the north is very thick and is stunting further destabilization.
13Z SPC had explicitly mentioned the extent of TX convection as a factor in the risk in OK. Interesting that SPC is treating NW TX and OK as separate regimes (per 16:30 outlook and the NW TX MSD). Initiation in NW TX began at ~2pm, earlier than the “late afternoon” forecast in the 16:30 outlook.
We are nearing Altus and are going to head south for the northernmost storm heading toward Vernon. Can’t just ignore that given the environment (note it’s already out of the NW TX watch box) but will keep an eye on new development back in SW OK.
Dan Robinson
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- Saturday at 3:48 PM
- #73
The western side of that cluster of storms south of the Red River has cleared out enough that I now don't think it is much of a threat to the areas farther north. Cirrus clearing out for a bit in SW OK. In Lawton, final decision time soon on south or northwest.
Mike Smith
EF5
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- Wichita
- Saturday at 3:49 PM
- #74
I'm sure everyone knows about the PDS tornado watch. If not:
Today's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outlook - Updated at 3:30pm
In addition to the convective conditions noted by Jim above (a small thunderstorm is near LTS), we also have a thunderstorm that has developed in Beaver Co, the easternmost county in the OK Panhandle.
We may have a bifurcated threat today.
Hannah.Taylor
EF4
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- Mar 23, 2013
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- Denver, CO
- Saturday at 3:50 PM
- #75
@Bob Schafer and I are out today in S Central KS.
The SPC has just issued a PDS Watch w of Dodge City to the east of Wichita all the way S of the Red River.
S winds are fierce here in Kinsley with developing cue fields back to the w and sw and towers beginning to build. It is a rather toasty 87°.
Moving to the SE with Bob to await initiation.
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